Comeback Kids: Presidential Candidates that Have Come From Behind
Gallup has a fascinating 2 minute piece on presidential candidates that have come from behind; it is worth a watch. The upshot is that for the most part candidates that are behind this late in the game stay behind on election day. But there are some exceptions, like:
Carter was leading by 8 going into the election week and Reagan won by 10.
Or:
Nixon was leading by 8 toward the end and Humphrey stormed back to close the gap to 1.
Or:
While it is painful to even look at this graphic, Bush was ahead by 3 going into the election and Gore won the poular vote by 0.5 points. Of course, we all know how that one turned out.
So what’s the bottom line? Comebacks are possible, even when a candidate is trailing 8-9 points in the polls, but they aren’t very common. McCain is going to need something special if he’s going to make this a close race on election night.
