Republicans: Don’t get too excited about 2010 quite yet
The Republicans I talk to, like those Marc Ambinder talks to, have already started yapping about 2010 being like 1994. This struck me as completely wrong, but I hadn’t really thought through why. Marc has:
Consider: Bill Clinton had no experience working with the House and Senate; he had to learn on the job and made some early mistakes in this regard. Obama, on the other hand, has a working knowledge of the legislative process, and has a whole host of allies within the Democratic caucus.
In 1994, the realignment of the Southern states, which had happened on the presidential level in 1980, finally broke through on the Congressional level. The trends now are moving the other direction, with moderate Republicans in blue states being replaced by Democrats. (See: Shays, Christopher).
The Clinton White House lost the PR battle against Newt’s army and “Harry and Louise”. It’s hard (though not by any means impossible) to imagine the Obama communications department being similarly outmaneuvered, considering what we’ve seen from both sides in the current cycle.
More likely, if and when President Obama attempts to pass big-ticket items, the PR offensive coming from the White House on will be on the “shock and awe” side of overwhelming, if the recent campaign is any guide.
Bill Clinton was elected with 43% of the vote. Obama’s share of the popular vote is 53%, a clear majority. Psychologically, this matters a great deal to both sides and to the media.
I’ll add on that Clinton wasn’t coming in off of a two-term loser, either. Bush Sr. ran a pitiful campaign against Clinton, but he wasn’t a horrible president like Jr. has been. In 1994 the country wasn’t still smarting from the terrible reign of the Bush dynasty; in 2010 we still might be.
I expect the Bush hangover to last awhile.
November 10th, 2008 18:43
I don’t think so. People have pretty short-term memories. Congress arleady has an abysmal approval rating. If the country hasn’t gotten back on track, people will place blame where they can, and that will be Congress. Now I am not predicting that this will definitely happen, because there is a chance that things will turn around enough for people to be satisfied. But things are pretty shaky right now, and two years would be some quick moving improvement. I think those up for re-election in 2010 should be a little nervous.
November 10th, 2008 19:58
When in history did Congress have good approval ratings?
November 11th, 2008 00:08
If Obama and the Dems can stay in the center, get the economy moving, and not start to spend like a kid in a candy store (and keep the far left chatter out of the discussions – although Moveon.org and the ACLU is already making their cases), I doubt the Republicans would get enough traction to get a majority anywhere in Congress – they may even lose more seats.
If there was a 9/11 style commission about the economic mess (which will not happen), that may be the catalyst to get things shaken up in Congress. Who knows exactly what happened and if there are people that are actually guilty (I think there are – but I have no proof or conspiracy theory to back me up, just my gut) of being this greedy or evil or just plain stupid.