Why Obama won
As usual, Marc Ambinder is right on point. I’ll highlight a couple of his thoughts on why Obama won last night:
– The exit polls demographics tell a story of an expansion of the Democratic-leaning electorate by Obama; he did much better with Kerry than Hispanics; he grew the ranks of younger voters; he grew the African American vote; he did a bit better among white voters, but still lost working class whites by nearly 20 points. Obama won among new voters by more than 30 points.
I think the Hispanic vote was huge in this election. As was the young voter turnout. Unlike Gore and Kerry, Obama was able to get the youth to come out and that made a huge difference.
– Obama is a once-in-a-generation candidate, a brilliant communicator in an age of communication. Cool and consistent under pressure. He grew over the course of two years into a candidate voters believed was ready to be president. The right candidate at the right moment. The most un-Bush of any of the Democratic candidates.
Very true. For every individual that was put off by Obama’s intelligence and appeal, there were two or three that loved it. He has a way of rallying support like the best politicians in history.
– The financial crisis, and the candidates’ response to it. Probably the crucial moment for both campaigns. The voters saw the two men react to an unexpected crisis. Voters seemed to prefer Obama’s steadiness to McCain’s suspended campaign. McCain’s sudden decision was 180 degrees from what he had been saying a week before (”fundamentals of our economy are strong”).
Absolutely huge. McCain was gaining momentum until the financial crisis hit. When it did it left McCain shell-shocked and his response of suspending the campaign seemed ad-hoc and not well thought out. The financial crisis showed that McCain was right when he said he didn’t know much about economic affairs.
– Sarah Palin. Polling shows that she drove some voters away from Sen. McCain and to Barack Obama. Voters judged her to be too inexperienced to be president. Also, instead of appealing to independents, she became a polarizing figure. ALSO — her persona highlighted McCain’s age and health since she could have taken over. ALSO — her selection killed the “inexperience” argument against Obama.
Picking Palin was a big mistake, as the polls indicated. He got a small bump from it originally, but once folks realized she was an empty skirt, it was downhill from there. I think HRC voters and women generally were largely put off by the choice and the inexperience argument was gone for McCain after the pick.
I’ll add one more to the list: Clinton. Clinton’s foolishness when it came to her own campaign opened the door for Obama to make his comeback. Clinton’s ego got in the way and she thought she need not campaign after Super Tuesday as the election would be wrapped up. This might have been the single most important decision of this election.
