40 days after war, Hamas rule of Gaza gaining legitimacy
Oops, that’s not good.
But I wonder who predicted this might happen? Oh right, me. From Haaretz:
Three rockets fell Thursday in the area around the Gaza Strip, one in the yard of a Sderot home – just a few reminders that Israel is still far from its declared goal in Operation Cast Lead. Discussion about the military operation’s outcome revolves around the term “deterrence.”
If Israel can enshrine Cast Lead in a long-term agreement, the war will be remembered as a success. But fears are mounting that the operation’s military achievements are dissipating. If so, the operation will go down in history as a less-than-successful round in a long war in the Gaza Strip.
The Israel Defense Forces left Gaza with the feeling that it had proven itself, after its debacle in Lebanon in 2006. But it seems that the bottom line will have to wait. In Lebanon, too, it took several months before it could be concluded that although the IDF made mistakes, enough deterrence against Hezbollah was achieved to prevent renewed fighting.
Barak, who was quick to criticize what went wrong in Lebanon, followed Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni’s lead in withdrawing from Gaza without a real agreement. But like in Lebanon, faced with only an aerial attack or one followed by a ground operation, Israel chose the middle ground and acted slowly and partially. Because in Gaza the enemy was less determined than in Lebanon, the move first appeared to be a victory. Only when the IDF left could the results of the war be seen as limited, with almost daily attacks near the fence, a continuing “drizzle” of rockets and information on renewed arms smuggling.
The blow Hamas was dealt has only led to increased admiration for the group, according to opinion polls in the territories. Hamas is still waiting for another crowning achievement: if abducted IDF soldier Gilad Shalit is released for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.
However, the army is currently reviewing its performance during the war and an encouraging picture is emerging in terms of its professionalism, control over units, aerial assistance to ground forces, quality of intelligence and logistics compared to the Second Lebanon War.
March 2nd, 2009 19:45
Another perspective:
http://www.theaugeanstables.com/2009/03/02/puzzled-in-gaza-not-if-you-know-about-pallywood/#more-1693
I’ve seen several others. If these accounts prove true, it will demonstrate the problem with the type of hysterical reporting found on this site and others.
March 2nd, 2009 20:55
Paul, we’re supposed to seriously consider one man’s personal “account” over what nearly every single main stream media outlet and academic with knowledge of the area is saying? Further, is there anything in your cite that speaks to Hamas legitimacy, because I didn’t see it. Show me some hard data to suggest that Israel’s bombing campaign has weakened Hamas legitimacy. Until then…
March 2nd, 2009 22:32
Yawn, I’m not doing the leg work this time. I’ve read numerous accounts along this line and find it every bit as reliable, if not more so, than the sources you are relying on (or that they are relying on). I trust you have already read the reports from the IDF of their initial findings with regards to the casualty figures (and specifically rebutting the “UN school massacre”, as well as showing that PNRC and the UN did, in fact, include the Rayan family as Israeli casualties.)
March 2nd, 2009 22:34
Oh, and thanks for reading closely enough to realize this was written by a woman (though I copied it from a man’s site).
March 2nd, 2009 22:59
Paul, nothing you have posted so far in any way remotely addresses the issue of legitimacy, which is the topic of my post. There is abundant survey data out of Gaza recently which suggests that Hamas’ legitimacy has been strengthened, not weakened, by the recent war. The goal of Israel was to destroy and delegitimize Hamas; it has failed on both accounts.
Do you not believe the data? Do you think it is wrong? Do you think that Hamas *has* been delegitimated, we just don’t have any data for it? What is your position?